Kalshi stock: IPO, valuation and how investors can get involved early

Did you read about Kalshi during the World Cup or around the US elections and wonder if you can buy the stock? As of 19 October 2026, there is no Kalshi stock on the stock exchange. The company is private and was valued at $22 billion in a funding round in May 2026 (CoinDesk, 07/05/2026). An IPO is not expected until 2027 at the earliest. If you want to get involved beforehand, you can generally only access the company through a fund that already holds shares.

Kalshi at a glance

• Kalshi operates a regulated marketplace for event contracts in the US, also known as a prediction market.
• There is no publicly tradable stock with a WKN or ISIN.
• Last confirmed valuation: $22 billion (May 2026). According to Reuters, a new round at around $40 billion is being negotiated.
• IPO: Ruled out for 2026; according to media reports, possible at the end of 2027 or 2028.
• In Germany, the provision of prediction markets is not eligible for authorisation.
• You can invest indirectly via the ARK Private Innovation ELTIF.

Can you buy Kalshi stock?

Not directly. Kalshi is not listed on the stock exchange, so you won't find Kalshi stock or an official share price in any brokerage account. Figures that appear online as a Kalshi share price are usually valuations from funding rounds or estimates from trading platforms for private shares. These platforms are generally only open to large investors.

There is a risk of confusion regarding the name itself. If you open an account with Kalshi, you trade event contracts there and do not become a co-owner of the company. These contracts are discussed in the next section, and investment in the company is covered below.

What does Kalshi do?

Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara founded Kalshi in New York in 2018. On the platform, participants trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events, such as economic data, elections, the weather or sports results. A contract pays out $1 if the event occurs, and nothing otherwise. The price in between reflects how likely the participants believe the event to be: if a contract costs $0.30, the market expects a probability of around 30 per cent.

Since 2020, Kalshi has been authorised by the US derivatives regulator, the CFTC, as an exchange for such contracts. The company earns money from fees on every trade. Since Kalshi began offering contracts on sporting events, the business has grown significantly: according to The Information, the projected annual revenue in July 2026 was around $4 billion, driven primarily by sports contracts surrounding the World Cup (CoinDesk, 13/08/2026). Hedge funds and trading houses are also increasingly using these contracts to hedge against specific events.

Kalshi valuation: from $2 billion to $22 billion

Kalshi’s value has risen sharply in a short space of time. At the end of June 2025, the valuation was still $2 billion (CNBC, 24/06/2026). By December 2025, it had reached $11 billion. Six months later, in May 2026, Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round led by Coatue, at a valuation of $22 billion (CoinDesk, 07/05/2026).

The next round is in the works. According to Reuters, Kalshi is negotiating around $1 billion at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, led by Sequoia and Wellington (Cointelegraph, 30/09/2026). Kalshi had not confirmed this round as of 19 October 2026.

For you as an investor, this means: a valuation from a funding round is the price that a few large investors pay for newly issued shares. It can change significantly before an IPO, both upwards and downwards.

Kalshi IPO: When is it happening?

There is no set date. According to The Information, Kalshi has been holding initial talks with banks regarding an IPO since June 2026, but a listing is considered unlikely before the end of 2027 or 2028. CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed to CNBC in June that Kalshi is considering an IPO, but ruled it out for 2026 (CNBC, 24/06/2026). The company has not yet publicly filed a prospectus.

What happens between the first talks with banks and the first day of trading, from the confidential prospectus filed with the SEC to the lock-up period for early investors, is something Robin and Hendrik discuss in episode #65 of our podcast Diversify (in German). An overview of the other big candidates through 2027 is in our article on pre-IPO investing.

Regulation: Where prediction markets are permitted

The biggest open question for Kalshi is legal in nature. In the US, the CFTC and several states are in a dispute over who has the authority to oversee event contracts on sports. Kalshi views them as financial derivatives under federal oversight, while the states classify them as sports betting under their gambling laws. On 25 September 2026, a federal appeals court ruled that Ohio and Tennessee are permitted to apply their gambling laws to Kalshi (CNBC, 25/09/2026). Another appeals court had ruled in Kalshi’s favour in April, meaning the Supreme Court may ultimately have to decide. Because sports contracts account for the majority of revenue, a large part of the valuation hinges on this dispute.

In Germany, the situation is clear. According to the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL), prediction markets are not eligible for a licence here (Gambling Research Centre, August 2026). In June 2026, the German supervisory authority, together with authorities from seven other EU countries and Switzerland, warned of the risks associated with such platforms (Gespa, 17/06/2026). Investing in the company Kalshi via a fund should be viewed separately: you hold a share in a fund and are not trading event contracts yourself.

Getting involved before the IPO: via the ARK Private Innovation ELTIF

Through NAO, you can invest in the ARK Private Innovation ELTIF, hand-picked by our investment team just like every other fund in the NAO app. The ARK Invest fund invests in private technology companies in late growth stages, including Kalshi, OpenAI, SpaceX and Databricks (ARK factsheet, as of 31/08/2026).

With a fund share, you are invested in a portfolio whose composition can change at any time. Kalshi is one position among many within it, so the fund is not a single bet on the company. You can invest via a lump sum or a savings plan. A lock-up period applies until 26/02/2027, during which time you cannot redeem your shares. You can find more about the fund on our page on Private Equity how an ELTIF is structured and when redemptions are possible is explained in our overview of ELTIFs.

The paths to two other companies in the fund are described in our articles on OpenAI stock and on SpaceX stock.

Risks of investing before an IPO

Anyone investing in Kalshi via a fund primarily faces these risks:

• Regulation: If US courts rule against Kalshi, a large part of the sports business could be lost or fall under gambling law in many states.
• Valuation: The value has increased more than tenfold within a year. Private companies do not have a stock market price; the fund values its holdings based on funding rounds and models.
• Timing: Whether and when Kalshi will go public remains uncertain.
• Capital commitment: For the ARK Private Innovation ELTIF, a lock-up period applies until 26/02/2027; after that, redemptions are only possible on specific dates and may be limited.
• Loss:Losses up to the total loss of the invested capital are possible.

What does this mean for you?

Kalshi is growing rapidly, and its most important business is also currently facing legal challenges in the US. Before you invest via a fund, you should clarify for yourself:

• How much money can you afford to tie up for several years?
• Does a fund with around 20 private technology companies fit with the rest of your portfolio?
• How are lock-ups, redemptions and costs managed? The answers can be found in the Key Information Document.

Do you have questions about the ARK Private Innovation ELTIF? Our customer service team is available to help you personally on weekdays. Feel free to drop us a message.

FAQ

Can I buy Kalshi shares?

No, as of October 2026, Kalshi is not publicly traded. There are no freely tradable shares with a WKN or ISIN.

When will Kalshi go public?

There is no fixed date. CEO Tarek Mansour ruled out 2026; according to The Information, an IPO in late 2027 or 2028 is considered possible.

What is Kalshi's valuation?

The last confirmed valuation was 22 billion US dollars from the funding round in May 2026. According to Reuters, Kalshi is negotiating a new round at around 40 billion US dollars (as of 19/10/2026).

Is Kalshi permitted in Germany?

No, in the view of the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL), prediction markets are not eligible for a licence in Germany. This applies to trading on the platform. An investment in the company via a fund is a separate matter.

How can I invest in Kalshi before the IPO?

Indirectly via the ARK Private Innovation ELTIF, which holds Kalshi alongside other private technology companies. You can invest via a one-off payment or a savings plan in the NAO app.

This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investments in private markets are long-term, capital is tied up for the duration of the term, and losses up to the total loss of capital are possible. You can find the fund documentation and the Key Information Document (KID) in the NAO app.

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